Wednesday, June 13, 2018

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Polling, the Astrology of Politics

And that’s what nationwide surveys measure; they do not and cannot predict individual state electoral vote outcomes. There is also the issue of turnout models. The accuracy of every poll is contingent upon a sample that accurately predicts turnout.  In 2018, the past is hardly prologue. Who is going to vote?  Will #MeToo, anti-Trump fever and the teen mobilization after the Parkland shooting result in a turnout that is younger and more female than that for “normal” non-presidential primaries, as has been the case in several recent special elections?  Will backlash against President Trump and the presence of prominent Latino candidates—including former L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa in the governor’s race and State Senator Kevin de Leon, challenging Senator Diane Feinstein—produce a heavy Latino turnout?  Will the GOP be successful in getting enough of its dwindling base to get excited over gas taxes and sanctuary cities to produce a respectable turnout? Maybe the most striking thing about this year’s gubernatorial campaign is the inability, so far, of any candidate to run away from the pack.  Newsom is widely expected to finish first in the primary, but despite his Bay Area base, strong labor support and advantageous ballot title, the Lieutenant Governor hasn’t been able to get above 30% in the polls.  Villaraigosa, with name recognition and Latino support, has seemed to be Newsom’s most likely run-off opponent, but hasn’t been able to shake loose from Republican John Cox in a tight race for second place. While, at times, the former Los Angeles Mayor has seemed to be an “old-school” candidate, Villaraigosa is being boosted by a heavy independent expenditure campaign funded by wealthy business leaders and charter school advocates.  Businessman John Cox now has President Donald Trump’s endorsement and the ability to self-fund his campaign, but it remains to be seen whether there are enough GOP voters to get him into the November run-off.  Assemblyman Travis Allen, a conservative zealot, is a major thorn in Cox’s side.  State Treasurer John Chiang has appeared to be flailing, while former State Superintendent of Public Instruction Delaine Eastin suffers from a lack of money and minuscule name recognition.   There remains a sense that the battle for the second run off spot is a close call between Villaraigosa and Cox, but that is pretty much guesswork—a mélange of statistical hits and misses. Candidates, campaign consultants and political junkies obsess about the polls, but accurate polling becomes more and more impossible. In the end, the voters will have the final say or, maybe, the last laugh.

For the original version including any supplementary images or video, visit http://www.foxandhoundsdaily.com/2018/05/polling-astrology-politics/

TO date #Aquarius: #dont be demanding, whiny, sad, jealous, a debbie downer, over critical, controlling, judgemental, rude, irrational
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Tuesday, June 12, 2018

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MoneySavingExpert's Martin Lewis reveals why McDonald's Monopoly 2018 is disappointing for winners

McDonald's Monopoly is back, giving you the chance to win food and fabulous prizes. The 2018 promotion will be running until late April or early May. Peel-back stickers will be attached to boxes, cups and cartons, with some offering an instant win and others taking you online to redeem a code, or you can collect game pieces to complete sets and win even bigger prizes. Each game piece will have two or three stickers - and the bigger the meal, the bigger the possible prize. But money-saving expert Martin Lewis and his team have revealed why some people may be disappointed with it this year, according to our sister title The Liverpool Echo . In a blog post on his website moneysavingexpert.com , a member of his team details how the number of prizes up for grabs has decreased quite dramatically from last year. The post says: "Unfortunately, in 2018 there are considerably fewer prizes to be won. "The number of holidays has reduced from 200 to 20, and games consoles from 500 to 400. "These were already rare to begin with, so chances of finding them now are even slimmer." There are fewer chances to win some of the Monopoly prizes from McDonald's in 2018 This is when McDonald's Monopoly is back in 2018 While some of the prizes may have reduced in quantity, new for 2018 customers have the ability to digitally collect and store their property game pieces on the Monopoly website. Additionally, for the first time there is the chance to win food prizes online. - Your burger, fries pack, drink and/ or McFlurry tub will have stickers on the side – and large meals carry more stickers than regular ones - Pick up a McDonalds Monopoly board from the counter (this will either be available as a large sheet, like the original board game, or as a little booklet which folds up) - Stick your stickers on the board or exchange your free food stickers The third stickers on a Triple Game Piece will be from a Property Set, and one might be an Instant Win.

For the original version including any supplementary images or video, visit https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/whats-on/food-drink-news/moneysavingexperts-martin-lewis-reveals-mcdonalds-14477517

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Monday, June 11, 2018

A New Analysis On Fast Programs In Japan Travel

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halo ci, bulan juli nnti aku mau liburan ke korea sekalian mau buka jastip. tp aku tkut klo ikut tour nnti ga bisa buka jastip krn aku rasa uda ke 1 tmpt nnti ga balek ke tmpt itu lg. cici prnh buka jastip ga? ad… — wahhh aku gtw nih soal jastip jastip:v http://lap87.ask.fm/igoto/45DKECN75V62DDAUPY6IQO7Q5OGC3JI3RT56DC5YD7SKT656RAR4YJIIPIEYWXBTKO6P6FQBIVWDGWCYQZ57M3FAK32KZBBGWIIERFKKHVYT4J7CB6RDKOXMV2TO7HLFTGUZ4FRUYCCGDAEALWPQUQTK6XHHB4ETZXIV7UZJ3SPJO7GBAVKXXW7M6BJKFW5734====== …

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Wanna One Pindah Agensi Ke Swing Entertainment

Wanna One Pindah Agensi Ke Swing Entertainment Wanna One Pindah Agensi Ke Swing Entertainment Wanna One (Foto:Instagram @wannaone.official) Sembilan bulan bernaung di bawah YMC Entertainment, Wanna One kini dipastikan akan pindah ke agensi baru. Grup yang dipimpin Yoon Ji-sung ini akan bergabung dengan Swing Entertainment, sebuah agensi yang didirikan khusus untuk grup tersebut. Pernyataan ini diumumkan langsung oleh pihak Swing Entertainment melalui fancafe resmi Wanna One. Dilansir Soompi, Swing Entertainment menuliskan bahwa pihaknya akan menangani semua segala aktivitas Wanna One mulai besok, Jumat (1/6). "Untuk kelancaran semua pengalihan kontrak dan tugas, kami akan mempertahankan hubungan kolaboratif dengan agensi manajemen asli YMC Entertainment untuk saat ini," tulis pihak Swing Entertainment. Kai dan Sehun Jadi Trending Topic saat Hadiri Pekan Mode di Prancis Tak hanya Wanna One, semua staf yang juga mengurus mereka sejak awal akan ikut pindah ke Swing Entertainment. Swing berjanji akan selalu mendukung semua kegiatan Wanna One mulai dari album baru hingga tur konser dunia yang akan dimulai pada awal Juni 2018. "Kami berharap para penggemar dapat tetap mendukung dan memberikan cinta kepada Wanna One di agensi yang baru," tulis Swing Entertainment. Kesebelas anggota Wanna One bergabung dengan YMC Entertainment sejak acara survival 'Produce 101 Season 2' berakhir. Wanna One melangsungkan debutnya pada Agustus 2017 lalu dan kontrak mereka akan segera berakhir pada 31 Desember 2018.

For the original version including any supplementary images or video, visit https://kumparan.com/@kumparank-pop/wanna-one-pindah-agensi-ke-swing-entertainment

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Saturday, June 9, 2018

A Simple A-to-z On Efficient Japan Tactics

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50 beautiful places to visit in South Korea

Hyeopjae is also particularly known for its delicious abalones and conches, served fresh in the seafood restaurants dotting the beach. 2497-1 Hyeopjae-ri, Hallim-eup, Jeji-si, Jeju Speicial Self-Governing Province (제주특별자치도 제주시 한림읍 협재리 2497-1번지) Watch the lotus flowers reflect on Anap Pond. Courtesy Rick Cox/Creative commons/Flickr This man-made pond was created during the Shilla Dynasty approximately 1,500 years ago. Three buildings stand on three artificial islands while patches of lotus flowers frame the pond. Gorgeous exterior lighting that go on after sunset create a magical night view. 26 Inwang-dong, Gyeongju-si, Gyeongsangbuk-do (경상북도 경주시 인왕동 26) Spectacular scenes at Seryang-Je reservoir. Seryang-Je, a reservoir built in 1969 in Hwasun, is another famous spot for both professional and amateur photographers for its ethereal mist and reflections of colorful blossoms and leaves. Seryang-ri, Hwasun-eup, Hwasun-gun, Jeollanam-do (전라남도 화순군 화순읍 세량리) Kwanghan Pavilion is the setting of Chunhyangjeon, one of Korea's most famous folk tales. Chunhyang, the young, beautiful daughter of a gisaeng (Korean geisha), and Mongryong, the handsome son of the local governor, first met and fell in love in this beautifully designed pavilion, which was designated a treasure in 1963.

For the original version including any supplementary images or video, visit https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/south-korea-beautiful-places/index.html

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Visa application for Korea now only through travel agencies

Visa application for Korea now only through travel agencies Visa application for Korea now only through travel agencies Posted at May 30 2018 07:54 PM | Updated as of May 31 2018 06:08 PM MANILA (UPDATED) - Filipinos who wish to travel to South Korea may apply for a visa only through travel agencies, the Embassy of the Republic of Korea in the Philippines announced Tuesday. The new policy will be implemented starting July 1, 2018. According to the Korean Embassy, the new policy will be implemented due to the big increase in Korean visa applicants. "Total number of visa applicants increased from 90,000 in the year 2015 to 120,000 by the end of 2016. In the year 2017, total number of visa applicants recorded was around 160,000," the embassy said. The increase in number of visa applicants caused inconvenience to the applicants. "This increase in number of visa applicants caused the applicants to stand in hot weather outside the embassy for hours to wait in line for their turn to apply for respective visas," the embassy said. The embassy has assigned the following travel agencies to process all applications:

For the original version including any supplementary images or video, visit http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/30/18/visa-application-for-korea-now-only-through-travel-agencies

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Thursday, June 7, 2018

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Friday, June 1, 2018

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