A Few Guidelines On Rapid Plans For
And that’s what nationwide surveys measure; they do not and cannot predict individual state electoral vote outcomes. There is also the issue of turnout models. The accuracy of every poll is contingent upon a sample that accurately predicts turnout. In 2018, the past is hardly prologue. Who is going to vote? Will #MeToo, anti-Trump fever and the teen mobilization after the Parkland shooting result in a turnout that is younger and more female than that for “normal” non-presidential primaries, as has been the case in several recent special elections? Will backlash against President Trump and the presence of prominent Latino candidates—including former L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa in the governor’s race and State Senator Kevin de Leon, challenging Senator Diane Feinstein—produce a heavy Latino turnout? Will the GOP be successful in getting enough of its dwindling base to get excited over gas taxes and sanctuary cities to produce a respectable turnout? Maybe the most striking thing about this year’s gubernatorial campaign is the inability, so far, of any candidate to run away from the pack. Newsom is widely expected to finish first in the primary, but despite his Bay Area base, strong labor support and advantageous ballot title, the Lieutenant Governor hasn’t been able to get above 30% in the polls. Villaraigosa, with name recognition and Latino support, has seemed to be Newsom’s most likely run-off opponent, but hasn’t been able to shake loose from Republican John Cox in a tight race for second place. While, at times, the former Los Angeles Mayor has seemed to be an “old-school” candidate, Villaraigosa is being boosted by a heavy independent expenditure campaign funded by wealthy business leaders and charter school advocates. Businessman John Cox now has President Donald Trump’s endorsement and the ability to self-fund his campaign, but it remains to be seen whether there are enough GOP voters to get him into the November run-off. Assemblyman Travis Allen, a conservative zealot, is a major thorn in Cox’s side. State Treasurer John Chiang has appeared to be flailing, while former State Superintendent of Public Instruction Delaine Eastin suffers from a lack of money and minuscule name recognition. There remains a sense that the battle for the second run off spot is a close call between Villaraigosa and Cox, but that is pretty much guesswork—a mélange of statistical hits and misses. Candidates, campaign consultants and political junkies obsess about the polls, but accurate polling becomes more and more impossible. In the end, the voters will have the final say or, maybe, the last laugh.
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